Healthcare Predictions 2025: What Actually Happened
Healthcare knew what it wanted in 2025. Building it took longer.
Last January, we predicted five shifts:
- Mid-sized employers drive change
- CFOs demand transparency
- Digital payments go mainstream
- Providers choose speed
- Payment security becomes a priority
A year later, here's what actually happened.
Prediction 1: Mid-size employers will become healthcare's unlikely heroes
Facing rising costs, mid-sized businesses would drive adoption of local solutions delivering better care at lower costs, proving that meaningful change doesn't require Fortune 500 resources.
Status: Regional momentum
Mid-sized employers didn't wait for permission in 2025. They built worksite clinics, negotiated directly with health systems, and bypassed traditional insurance models to contain costs.
National Alliance data confirmed the pattern: employers with robust claims data were more than twice as likely to adopt direct contracting (39% compared to 15%), with nearly half of the respondents in the 1,000–9,999 employee range. Where data existed, action followed.
The approach varied by market. Nomi Health’s Michigan network now serves thousands through partnerships with Henry Ford Health and Trinity Health Michigan. Boeing brought 70,000 Seattle-area employees into direct contracting through the Purchaser Business Group on Health.
Bottom Line: Mid-sized employers drove change where they had the data and partnerships to act on it.
Prediction 2: The black box of healthcare costs will open
CFOs would finally demand—and get—real visibility into their second-largest expense, moving from passive acceptance of annual increases to active management of healthcare spending.
Status: Ownership waiting on adoption
CFOs claimed ownership of healthcare spending in 2025. A CFO Leadership survey found that 99% called managing healthcare their responsibility, with half reporting it as one of their largest SG&A expenses.
However, the tools to manage spending remained uneven. A Mercer survey showed 30% of CFOs didn't have the information they needed or weren't sure. Most lacked confidence their cost management strategies actually saved money.
Bottom line: The black box cracked open in 2025, but only partway.
Prediction 3: Healthcare's fintech moment will arrive
Just as banking modernized a decade ago, healthcare would finally adopt faster, digital payment solutions, replacing paper checks and manual processing with real-time transactions.
Status: Rails ready, workflows in progress
Healthcare adopted modern payment infrastructure in 2025. The industry now uses the same rails as banking: ACH, virtual cards, and real-time payment networks. ACH volume rose 8% year-over-year.
Yet the payment experience lagged. While nearly half of global B2B payments are now digital, healthcare adoption remained lower and uneven. Providers still manually process virtual card details from emails and key payments from multiple portals, a sharp contrast to the embedded integrations common in mature fintech systems.
Bottom line: Healthcare built the rails in 2025. The streamlined experience remains under construction.
Prediction 4: Real-time provider payments will gain traction
Providers would increasingly choose guaranteed 48-hour payments at slightly reduced rates over the traditional "bill high and hope" approach that delivers 60-70 cents on the dollar after months of waiting.
Status: Wide adoption of multiple solutions
Provider appetite for faster payments grew in 2025, though the trade-offs varied. A healthcare finance survey found 83% of small and mid-sized organizations sent or received real-time payments in the prior year, with 70% planning broader adoption.
Early-pay programs proliferated with varied incentives. Vendors reported paying 30% more invoices earlier than the previous year, bundling speed with rebates and working capital solutions rather than simple rate reductions.
Bottom line: Providers embraced speed when the economics made sense, whether through rate adjustments, rebates, or improved cash flow.
Prediction 5: Protecting healthcare payments will become a national priority
Mounting vulnerabilities would force policymakers to classify medical payments as critical financial infrastructure, with the February 2024 Change Healthcare breach serving as a wake-up call.
Status: Priority waiting on policy
Payment integrity expanded to include cybersecurity and system resilience. After the Change Healthcare breach, CMS created the Fraud Defense Operations Center for real-time monitoring. By late 2025, CMS had put $4.8 billion suspicious Medicare payments on hold and identified over $2.3 billion in overpayments.
CMS convened the IDea Challenge in December with industry experts, including Nomi Health, to develop solutions that protect payments without blocking care.
Bottom line: Healthcare payments didn't receive formal critical infrastructure designation in 2025, but policymakers took concrete steps to treat them that way.
Healthcare moved forward in 2025, but not in straight lines.
Direct contracting spread regionally. CFOs claimed ownership without tools. Payment rails modernized while workflows lagged. Providers got faster payment options with varied terms. Federal agencies strengthened payment security short of formal designation.
One major pattern emerged in 2025: people wanted change faster than systems could deliver it. Employers, CFOs, and providers pushed for transparency, speed, and control. The infrastructure to support those demands is still catching up.